Tinubu Faces Hurdles in Securing National Assembly Approval for Rivers Emergency Rule

President Bola Tinubu is struggling to secure the necessary two-thirds majority in Nigeria's National Assembly to approve his declaration of emergency rule in Rivers State. The declaration, made on Tuesday, follows a prolonged political crisis in the state. Tinubu's controversial actions included suspending Governor Siminalayi Fubara, his deputy, and all assembly members for six months. He appointed retired Vice-Admiral Ibok-Ete Ibas as the administrator.

For the emergency rule to take effect, the constitution mandates the president to transmit the proclamation to the Senate President and Speaker of the House of Representatives. However, there is debate over the legality of suspending an elected governor and appointing an administrator, as these actions are not explicitly outlined in the 1999 constitution.

The Two-Thirds Majority Challenge

Under Section 305 (6) of the constitution, the president's emergency declaration must be approved by a two-thirds majority in both chambers of the National Assembly. With 360 members in the House of Representatives and 109 in the Senate, Tinubu needs at least 240 votes in the House and 73 in the Senate. Without these votes, the declaration will be voided. 

Lawmakers are divided, with many questioning the necessity and legality of the move. Some members of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and opposition lawmakers remain skeptical about the proclamation, fearing it could set a dangerous precedent.

Quorum Issues and Absentee Voting Debate

Another challenge is the difficulty in forming a quorum. Many lawmakers are abroad for religious observances, leaving the National Assembly struggling to meet the quorum requirements of 120 in the House and 36 in the Senate. Leaders are seeking signatures for absentee voting, but some argue this would be unconstitutional.

A Miscalculation by the President?

Some lawmakers, including APC members, argue that Tinubu’s rushed declaration has put them in a difficult position. The constitution requires approval within two days if the National Assembly is in session, but the announcement came just after a break, making it harder to gather the required votes in time.

While Tinubu’s spokesperson, Akin Rotimi, stated that consultations had taken place before the declaration, the motion was deferred by both chambers of the National Assembly, with no resolution reached as of Wednesday.

If Tinubu fails to secure the necessary votes by Thursday, his emergency proclamation will be revoked, and the situation in Rivers State will revert to its previous status.